Report: Michigan on track to exceed 4K daily COVID-19 cases by Nov. 15

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    Michigan is one of several battleground states experiencing a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases. New estimates show the state could average about 2,759 new cases a day by Nov. 3, the day of the general election, and 4,227 new cases a day by Nov. 15. 

    Meanwhile, the U.S. is projected to reach 125,000 new cases per day by mid-November. These data come from a new report by the left-leaning policy institute Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C.

    The center used a model called the Oliver Wyman Navigator to estimate the increase in new cases for several time periods. In a release, the center said they used it for its accuracy: it has a mean absolute percent error of 1.5% for U.S. projections.

    Michigan reported 2,367 new COVID-19 cases and 28 deaths on Tuesday, which brought the state’s total cases to 164,274 and deaths to 7,239. 

    The spike in cases comes as Michigan enters the cooler autumn months and just weeks after the state Supreme Court deemed unconstitutional a law Gov. Gretchen Whitmer used to issue emergency orders to curb the coronavirus pandemic. 

    Michigan COVID-19 projection | Center for American Progress graph

    The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has since stepped in to issue some emergency orders instead, like requiring face masks and limiting indoor gatherings.

    In mid-October, the state’s chief medical executive, Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, said Michigan was on the cusp of experiencing a second wave. Hospitalizations have shot up in Michigan through October. 

    In the month before Election Day, new case counts are projected to have more than doubled in Michigan plus other battleground states like Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

    Arizona will average 1,365 new cases, North Carolina will average 2,596, Ohio will average 3,239, Pennsylvania will average 2,200 and Wisconsin will average 5,015 by Nov. 3.

    Cases are expected to double again from Oct. 25 to Nov. 15 in Michigan plus Florida (6,640), Arizona (2,136) and Ohio (5,102)

    C.J. Moore
    C.J. Moore covers the environment and the Capitol. She previously worked at NASA’s Glenn Research Center in Cleveland as a public affairs staff science writer. She also previously covered crop sustainability and coal pollution issues for Great Lakes Echo. In addition, she served as editor in chief at The State News and covered its academics and research beat. She is a journalism graduate student at Michigan State University.